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Market Commentary 1st Quarter 2025

In contrast to 2024, when U.S. equities outperformed European stocks, markets on the old continent had a stronger start into the year 2025. Notably, the German stock market emerged as a key beneficiary in 2025, posting substantial gains through mid-March, before being caught up in the global market corrections towards the end of the quarter.

Business Activity and Global Economy

The European equity rally was primarily fueled by geopolitical tensions within the U.S., investment commitments from Germany, and interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The announcement by the incoming German government to issue new debt for infrastructure modernization and to bolster Germany’s defense capabilities was particularly well-received by investors. Simultaneously, many institutional investors were deterred by President Trump’s trade policies and tariff threats, resulting in a capital shift towards European markets. A detailed analysis of the impact of Trump’s tariff strategy on the equity markets is provided on the final page.

Sector performance data reveals that technology stocks, particularly those that had been buoyed by last year’s AI hype, were among the largest underperformers. The release of the DeepSeek AI model in China, which was developed in a short timeframe without the newest microchips, raised concerns over the valuation of U.S. tech companies. Nvidia, a market leader in semiconductor development, was notably affected, with its stock shedding more than 16% in a single trading session. On the automotive front, the market reacted negatively to the Trump administration's tariff proposals, delays, and eventual implementation. European automakers and suppliers were disproportionately impacted, as they face, additionally to the tariff threats, a shrinking market share in China, their secondlargest market. In this volatile environment, gold benefitted as a safe-haven asset amidst heightened uncertainty.

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